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My chances for IM?

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Hi guys, could you tell me what my chances are for IM?

YoG: 2013
Step 1: 218 1st attempt
CS: Passed 1st attempt
CK: Will take Aug 30. Expected score is 220 (1st attempt) but I'm hoping for higher
USCE: 2 months 1 LoR each
No research/publications
US citizen, first time applicant

I plan to apply to IM broadly on Sept 25 when CK score is released. What do you think are my chances of matching to IM? Should I also apply for FM just in case?

Any suggestions/opinions would be greatly appreciated, thank you!

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